联合国(UN)在10月16日举行年度“世界粮食日”(World Food Day)庆祝活动，提醒人们关注全球还有8.54亿营养不良人口。联合国警告，“还有太多人在挨饿”。而这一警告似乎比以往更为焦虑。

    随着小麦、玉米和大米等主食需求日益上升，推动粮食价格上涨，为挨饿人口寻找粮食正成为一项日益艰巨的任务。这导致所有国家（无论富国还是穷国）都在竞相争夺粮食供应。

    对于那些已经在与政治动荡、干旱或战争相抗争的国家而言，粮食安全并不是一个新问题。但自20世纪70年代初发生全球粮食短缺以来，这是较为稳定的国家首次也在为粮食安全感到担忧。英国商业农民团体(Commercial Farmers Group)主席亨利•费尔(Henry Fell)表示：“全球局势正在传递这样的信号：我们正在走出粮食供应丰富期，进入一个粮食供应更为短缺的时期。”

    When the United Nations held its annual World Food Day last week to publicise the plight of the 854m malnourished people around the world, its warning that there “are still too many hungry people” was a little more anxious than usual.

    Finding food to feed the hungry is becoming an increasingly difficult task as growing demand for staples such as wheat, corn and rice brings higher prices. That is leading all nations – rich and poor – to compete for food supplies.

    Food security is not a new concern for countries that have battled political instability, droughts or wars. But for the first time since the early 1970s, when there were global food shortages, it is starting to concern more stable nations as well. “The whole global picture is flagging up signals that we're moving out of a period of abundant food supply into a period in which food is going to be in much shorter supply,” says Henry Fell, chairman of Britain's Commercial Farmers Group.
 
    随着农业大宗商品价格达到创纪录高位，食品生产商们也相继抬高价格。法国奶制品集团达能(Danone)本月就表示将提价10%，成为最新一家反映成本上升严峻态势的公司。随着这种现象的出现，世界各国开始质疑它们能否养活自己。

    小麦和牛奶价格已飙升至历史新高，而玉米和大豆的价格也维持在20世纪90年代平均水平之上。大米和咖啡的价格跃升至10年高点，某些国家的肉类价格最近上涨了50%。

    “世界正在逐渐丧失以往用来抵御（市场）严重动荡的缓冲器，”联合国粮农组织(Food and Agriculture Organisation)粮食贸易司司长阿普杜勒礼萨•阿巴斯安(Abdolreza Abbassian)表示。“现在有一种恐慌的苗头。”

    有些粮食价格上涨是由于暂时性问题或动植物疫情所致，如澳大利亚的干旱和中国的猪蓝耳病。但随着中国和印度日益富裕的人口需要更多的蛋白质，亚洲存在更为持久的需求增长；生物燃料业也一样。这些进展将在中期内对价格起到支撑作用。到2010年，生物燃料业将有望消耗美国玉米产量的30%左右。

    世界粮农组织估计，在下一个10年内，那些结构性新趋势将会把农业大宗商品价格从过去10年的平均水平向上推升20%至50%。

    As agricultural commodities trade at record high levels, causing one food manufacturer after another to put up prices – Danone, the French dairy group, this month became the latest to reflect the severity of the cost increases when it said it would increase prices by 10 per cent – countries are starting to question whether they can afford to keep feeding themselves.

    Wheat and milk prices have surged to all-time highs while those for corn and soyabeans stand at well above their 1990s averages. Rice and coffee have jumped to 10-year records and meat prices have risen recently by up to 50 per cent in some countries.

    “The world is gradually losing the buffer that it used to have to protect against big swings [in the market],” says Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the grains trading group at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation. “There is a sense of panic.”

    Some of the price rises are the result of temporary problems, such as drought in Australia, and diseases, such as blue-ear in Chinese pigs. But there is a more permanent increase in demand from Asia, as richer populations in China and India demand more protein, and from the biofuel industry, which is on course to consume about 30 per cent of the US corn crop in 2010 – developments that will underpin prices for the medium term.

The FAO estimates that those structural new trends will help to push the cost of agricultural commodities in the next decade between 20 and 50 per cent above their last 10-year average.