Inany other country, a shortage of pigs might be brushed off as a temporary phenomenon, cured by another turn in the perennial “hog cycle” as rising prices prompt higher meat production.

  在任何其它一个国家，人们可能会把猪肉短缺当作一种暂时现象而不予理会，随着价格上涨导致猪肉产量提高，在这种周而复始的“猪循环”(hog cycle)中，另一轮周期的到来便可解决这一问题。

  But in China, where pork is the staple meat and food counts for a large part of the household budget, the shortage – and its feared spillover to other parts of the economy – is being treated as something approaching a national emergency.

  但在中国，猪肉短缺（以及人们所担心的其对经济其它部分的影响）被当作一种近似于国家紧急状态的事情来看待。猪肉是中国人食用的主要肉类，同时食品占家庭预算的比重很大，

  The spectre of inflation fomenting broader discontent – as it did two decades ago, culminating in the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 – taps into the deepest existential fears of Chinese rulers about mass disorder and regime survival. In recent weeks, protests by students angry at higher prices and smaller food servings in their canteens have been reported in Anhui and Guangdong provinces. Even in affluent urban centres, including Beijing and Shanghai, the food price rises are causing resentment.

  对通货膨胀的担忧，助长更广泛的不满情绪，这触及了中国统治者对于大规模动荡和政权存亡问题最切身的恐惧。20年前，通货膨胀最终导致了1989年天安门广场示威游行。最近数周，一些报道称，在安徽和广东，一些愤怒的学生抗议食堂菜价上涨和菜量减少。即便在北京、上海等富裕城市中心，食品价格上涨也在招致不满。

  Inflation hit 6.5 per cent in August, the highest rate in 11 years, largely because of a 49 per cent year-on-year surge in meat and poultry prices (see chart). The fact that non-food price gains have remained low, at less than 1 per cent, has not calmed the nerves of senior policymakers.

  中国8月份通胀率达到6.5%，为11年来的最高点，这在很大程度上归因于肉类和家禽价格较上年同期飙升49%（见图）。非食品价格涨幅仍保持在不到1%的较低水平，但这一事实并未缓解高层决策者的紧张情绪。

  “We have entered a very delicate stage of our development,” says a senior economist and government adviser, asking not to be named. “For a long time, I was very optimistic about China's growth, but now I am quite worried. Real inflation is much higher. No one believes the government's figures.”

  “我们已进入发展历程中一个非常微妙的阶段，”一位要求不透露姓名的资深经济学家兼政府顾问表示，“长期以来，我对中国的发展持非常乐观的态度，但现在我相当担忧。实际通胀率要高得多。没人相信政府的数据。”

  Inflation has lowered the attractiveness of bank savings, which pay only 3.87 per cent interest on a one-year deposit account. If negative real interest rates persist, policymakers fear depositors could flee the banks and pour more of their money into the already frothy stock and property markets. “Inflation and the asset bubbles are now supporting each other. This is very dangerous,” says the economist.
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