Some see this year's resultant shortfall as indeed temporary and say the market is working the problem through. “As prices rose and blue-ear remained under control, farmers earlier this year began rebuilding their hog stocks,” says Andy Rothman, of CLSA, the brokerage, in Shanghai. “Since it takes about four months to raise a hog to slaughter weight, this means supply should begin to catch up with demand in September.” Wholesale pork prices have now declined for six consecutive weeks and are down 11 per cent from their peak.

  一些人认为，今年这种猪肉短缺的结果，的确是一种暂时现象，并表示市场正在解决这个问题。里昂证券(CLSA)驻上海的安迪•罗斯曼(Andy Rothman)表示：“由于物价上涨，蓝耳病仍在控制之中，农户今年年初开始重建他们的生猪库存。由于生猪从开始养殖到屠宰大约需要4个月的时间，这意味着供应应该在9月份开始赶上需求水平。”批发猪肉价格目前连续6周出现下滑，已从最高点下降11%。

  If this trend is maintained, inflation too will abate, relieving much of the immediate pressure on the government. But if not, broader global concerns about Chinese inflation will grow, with the attendant risk of substantially higher wages and export prices. That, in turn, would mean higher prices for toys, clothing and a host of everyday goods in the Wal-Marts and Carrefours of the US and Europe. It would affect much of the developed world, which has enjoyed low inflation for the last decade partly because of a flood of cheap Chinese goods.

  如果这种趋势继续下去，通胀水平也将降低，从而在很大程度上缓解中国政府目前面临的压力。但如果情况相反，整个世界对中国通胀的担忧将会加剧，随之带来工资和出口价格大幅上涨的风险。进而，这可能意味着沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)和家乐福(Carrefour)美欧门店里的玩具、服装及一系列日常用品价格的上涨。这将对许多发达国家造成影响——过去10年来，一定程度上由于廉价的中国商品如潮水般涌入，这些发达国家的通胀水平一直较低。

  But many are sceptical that the hog cycle can be turned around so quickly. “This is not a blip or a temporary thing. It is a shift,” says James Rice, the China country head for Tyson Foods, in Shanghai. “When you want to increase your capacity [in this industry], it takes a long time.”

  但许多人怀疑，是否那么快就能解决“猪循环”周期。“这不是短暂或暂时的现象，而是一种转变，”泰臣食品公司(Tyson Foods)驻上海的中国区主管詹姆斯•赖斯(James Rice)表示。“（在这个行业）如果你希望扩大自己的产能，需要很长时间。”

  Farmers, concerned about their fully-grown pigs catching blue-ear disease, and eager to capture the high market prices, are also slaughtering them younger, meaning that the meat generated per animal is declining. Pigs usually slaughtered at 120kg are now being killed at a weight of about 75kg, says Mr Rice.

  担心已长成的猪患上蓝耳病、并急切希望卖个好价钱的农民们，还在提前屠宰生猪，这意味着每只生猪的出肉量正在下降。赖斯表示，通常在120公斤时才被宰杀的生猪，目前在75公斤左右就被宰杀了。

  Central and provincial governments have responded with a range of measures, offering incentives to farmers to raise more pigs and even cutting road tolls for trucks transporting the animals to market. To great fanfare, the government last week released the equivalent of 30,000 tonnes of live pigs from what it calls its “central meats reserves”, also known as the strategic pork reserve.
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