According to China's chief economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, the cost of pork in supermarkets has fallen for two weeks in succession. Outside the pig farms, the other barometer being watched by the central government is the grain harvest in the northern autumn. The signs at the moment are that it will be good.
根据中国政府主要经济计划部门国家发改委(National Development and Reform Commission)的数据，超市的猪肉价格已连续两周下降。除了养猪场，中央政府关注的另外一个晴雨表就是北方秋季的粮食收成。目前的迹象显示，今年的收成不错。

“If the grain distribution system works smoothly, and assuming limited pass-through of agricultural price increases to other products, CPI [consumer price index] inflation should average in the range of 6-6.5 per cent in September, and then 5-5.5 per cent in December,” says Jun Ma, a Deutsche Bank economist in Hong Kong.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻香港经济学家马骏(Jun Ma)表示：“如果粮食分销系统运转顺畅，同时假定农产品价格上涨没有过多地传递到其它产品上，9月份消费者价格指数(CPI)通胀应平均在6%-6.5%之间，12月份应该在5%-5.5%之间。”

Mr Ma believes that inflation should then fall to about 3.5 per cent in 2008, a result that would delight the government, as it is below the current one-year benchmark deposit rate of 3.87 per cent. The threat of persistent negative real interest rates scares Beijing, as it could propel depositors to empty their bank accounts and plough their cash into an already frothy stock market.
马骏相信，通胀会在2008年降至3.5%左右，这将令政府满意，因为它低于目前的一年期基准存款利率3.87%。长时间的负实际利率令中国政府感到恐惧，因为这可能驱使储蓄者清空自己的银行账户，并将所有现金投入一个已存在泡沫的股市。

There are other signs of a growing pig population, including an increase in the past two months of already high feed prices. On Mr Li's farm, for example, the cost of a bag of feed has gone up by 30 per cent since August.
其它迹象也表明，猪的养殖数量在不断上升，其中包括本已高昂的饲料价格在过去两个月再度上涨。以李永强的养猪场为例，8月以来，一袋饲料的价格上涨了30%。

But there are also questions over whether the impact will be lasting.
但对于此种效果能否持续，还存在着一些疑问。

According to one industry analyst, who asked not be named, the recent fall in pork prices may have been due to supply factors peculiar to the Chinese market and mean there is unlikely to be any significant fall in pork prices until early next year. “Some farmers need to pay cash for their children's education fees in September, so they kill pigs early during this season,” the analyst said.
一位不愿透露姓名的行业分析人士称，中国市场特有的供应因素，可能是近期猪肉价格下降的原因所在，而这意味着，在明年初之前，猪肉价格不会再出现任何大幅下降。这位分析人士表示：“9月份，一些农民需要为孩子交学费，所以他们提前杀猪。”

For all the price rises, Mr Li still speaks in the resigned tones of a long-time farmer who believes the real benefits of his labour are always reaped by others. “The price they give to us is low. And the price that is given to the other businesses is high. The government and the farmers cannot control things. Only the middle-men can.”
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